Selasa, 29 April 2008
Senin, 28 April 2008
EMITEN PILIHAN : TINS
JUST LITTLE COMMENTS....
TIMAH DI PRODUKSI 75 % OLEH CHINA DAN INDONESIA..... JADI PERGERAKAN HARGANYA DI PENGARUHI OLEH KEDUA NEGARA TSB...TIMAH WILL GIVE YOU : DEVIDEN 50 %......STOK SPLIT 1 : 4/5 .....TIMAH JUST KOLEKSI KETIKA JATUH BELOW 30.000...OK
World tin production
Region %
World tin production
Region %
America 18
Asia 75
Europe 5
Oceania 1
Africa 1
Total 100
Industrial consumption
Industry %
Solders 32
Tin Plate 27
Others 17
Alloys 14
PC Stabilisers 6
Tinning 4
Total 100
Kamis, 24 April 2008
AVOID TRADING .................!!???!!!
ASAR still counfusing.......banyak experienced traders yg terjebak...termasuk saya yg terpaksa cut loss....untuk besok market unpredictable...mungkin besok udah dianggap libur oleh sebagian traders....untuk menemani anda mungkin parasales dari beberapa broker bisa menghibur anda....cheers
Rabu, 23 April 2008
MARKET IS CONFUSING.......
PASAR MINGGU INI MEMANG PLIN-PLAN...PAGI SEPI, SORE RAME...JADI KITA HARUS SIAP AMBIL ACTION DI SORE HARI....KEMARIN PGAS DAN INCO YG JADI GAME...HARI INI BUMI DAN PTBA....!!!BAGI YG JELI BISA MEMANFAATKAN SITUASI INI...JUST FOR EXPERIENCED PLAYERS !!!
Minggu, 20 April 2008
ASTRA ON THE MOVE...
ASTRA BERADA DI AREA SUPPORT JANGKA PANJANG SEJAK 2006.......(GRAFIK MINGGUAN)UNTUK HARIAN ASTRA MASIH BERPELUANG MENGUAT....MENUJU MOVING AVERAGE 20.....LETS SEE APAKAH OIL YG UDAH $ 116 BISA MENJADI PENGHALANG ASTRA UNTUK REBOUND....!!JANGAN TERLALU PANIC KALO ADA GUYURAN DI ASTRA...JUST AKUMULASI...BUY WITH YOUR OWN LIMIT............AND REMEMBER GARIS TREND LINE BULL WEEKLY...
ASTRA ON THE MOVE.......
ASTRA BERADA DI AREA SUPPORT JANGKA PANJANG SEJAK 2006.......(GRAFIK MINGGUAN)UNTUK HARIAN ASTRA MASIH BERPELUANG MENGUAT....MENUJU MOVING AVERAGE 20.....LETS SEE APAKAH OIL YG UDAH $ 116 BISA MENJADI PENGHALANG ASTRA UNTUK REBOUND....!!JANGAN TERLALU PANIC KALO ADA GUYURAN DI ASTRA...JUST AKUMULASI...BUY WITH YOUR OWN LIMIT............AND REMEMBER GARIS TREND LINE BULL WEEKLY...
Kamis, 17 April 2008
LANGKAH BERAT HOLCIM...
SETELAH BERTARUNG DI 900-920 SELAMA BERHARI2 AKHIRNYA BUYERS WIN THE BATTLE...BUT TOMORROW NEEDS VOLUME NAIK......OK
JIKA VOLUME TRADING CENDERUNG TURUN, AVOID OR CANCEL TO TRADE SMCB !!
Rabu, 16 April 2008
IS IT SUPER RED OR JUST ...............!!!!
IIKP MASUK PENNY STOCK JADI INVESTASIKAN UANG ANDA SECARA BIJAK....
happy investing...........
BATU BARA SIAP MEMBARA KEMBALI...
SAMBIL MENUNGGU RESULT Q1 YG PASTINYA KINCLONG.....
KITA TUNGGU GERAKAN EXPLOSIVE NYA..............................
akr still INTERESTING...
tidak ADA MASALAH DENGAN AKRA....
JUST PLAY THE GAME... SEGERA MASUKAN DALAM RADAR ANDA
Selasa, 15 April 2008
IS IT DEWA OR DEWI ?
APAKAH VOLUME YG DIBUAT TODAY JUST "TRAP GAME"...???
CLOSE 365....I THING ITS OK..... NOT FULL CANDLE BUT STILL MEANS BUY...
DEWA IS STOCK WHICH CUT SO DEEP IN RECENT WEEK....ABOUT 50 %.....
IN THE NAME OF GOD OF FORTUNE BUY DEWA WITH LIMITATION AMOUNT....
....watch the volume.......in the beginning of trading......OK
WIKA WILL STRIKE BACK...........
SAHAM PEMALAS INI MENGINDIKASIKAN BUY MESKI VOLUME MASIH CUKUP KECIL....
SAYANGYA PARA FUND MANAGERS DI WIKA SANGAT PELIT DALAM VOLUME SEHINGGA TRADERS KESULITAN MEMBELI DALAM JUMLAH YG MEMADAI....
JUST FOR LUNCH.....
HAPPY TRADING...
LONDON BULL AGAIN..........
LSIP U CAN DO IT....
dengan memperhatikan harga cpo dalam ringgit dan harga LSIP kita sudah seharusnya
BUY bagi para trader dengan harga 9200-9300 rasanya masih PANTAS....
TRADE WTIH OWN YOUR LIMIT...............
Jumat, 11 April 2008
SELAMA 2 HARI INDEX KITA REBOUND SIGNIFICANT........
BAGI SHORT TRADER UDAH SEHARUS NYA TAKE PROFIT KARENA TARGET YG KITA TULIS UDAH TERCAPAI ............
UNTUK MENEMANI LIBURAN BERHUBUNG SAYA AKAN TRAVEL KE LUAR KOTA SELAMA BBRP HARI.....SAYA PERSEMBAHKAN THIS WOMAN FOR U ALL...
Kamis, 10 April 2008
AALI BUY...TARGET AREA 26000.....
TEKNIKAL :
- AALI KELUAR DARI GARIS LUAR TREND TURUN
KATALIS :
- HARGA CPO YG NAIK
GUD LUCK
BDMN TO REBOUND......
SETELAH BERTARUNG DI 5450 DENGAN VOLUME GEDE...CLOSE 5550
HAPPY PROFIT .....TAPI BAGI YG BELUM AMBIL DI 5350-5450...CUKUP 20 LOT SAJA BESOK PRE OPENING.... TARGET 5700-5900 DULU...
Rabu, 09 April 2008
PT Summarecon Agung TbkPengembang pionir di kawasan Kelapa Gading, Jakarta Utara, ini tahun depan akan melakukan aksi ekspansi ke Bekasi.
Di sini, PT Summarecon Agung Tbk., bakal menggarap lahan seluas total 250-300 Ha untuk dikembangkan menjadi township development.Sama seperti di Summarecon Kelapa Gading dan Summarecon Serpong, proyek baru itu nantinya akan berkonten perumahan, perkantoran, hotel, apartemen, shopping mall dan ruko. “Pengembangan akan dilakukan secara bertahap. Tahap pertama kami garap seluas 170 Ha dulu untuk bangun rumah lebih kurang 3.000 unit. Direncanakan proyek Bekasi ini rampung keseluruhan dalam 10 tahun mendatang. Dananya sudah kami siapkan, antara lain kami peroleh dari hasil right issue pertengahan tahun ini sebanyak Rp500 miliar,” papar Direktur Utama PT Summarecon Agung Tbk., Johannes Mardjuki.Selain Bekasi, PT Summarecon Agung Tbk., juga akan melanjutkan pengembangan Summarecon Serpong. Pusat perbelanjaan Summarecon Mall Serpong akan diperluas menjadi 135 ribu m2, sehingga total luasnya menjadi 200 ribu m2. Nilai investasinya sendiri sekitar Rp800 miliar. Dan selama 10 tahun ke depan, Summarecon Serpong bakal menambah fasilitas dua menara hotel bertaraf internasional, dua menara serviced apartemen, tiga menara strata apartemen, dan satu menara perkantoran.Meski memiliki banyak rencana, bukan berarti pengembang yang dirintis klan Nagaria ini berubah agresif. Mereka tetap setia pada gaya bisnis konservatif namun fokus. Itulah mengapa tahun 2008 nanti target penjualan terkoreksi dibanding 2007. “Sedikit di bawah Rp1 triliun ya. Tepatnya belum pasti. Masih kami konsolidasikan. Kami berharap situasi makro ekonomi tidak terlalu buruk. Sedikit di bawah target tahun lalu, kami rasa cukup realistis,” ungkap Johannes seraya menambahkan tidak akan ada aktifitas fund raising di pasar modal hingga kuartal II 2008.
HARAP HATI2 UNTUK PARA TREADER DAN IVESTOR......JANGAN TERKECOH
TUNGGU SMRA DI BAWAH 400 OK.......
Di sini, PT Summarecon Agung Tbk., bakal menggarap lahan seluas total 250-300 Ha untuk dikembangkan menjadi township development.Sama seperti di Summarecon Kelapa Gading dan Summarecon Serpong, proyek baru itu nantinya akan berkonten perumahan, perkantoran, hotel, apartemen, shopping mall dan ruko. “Pengembangan akan dilakukan secara bertahap. Tahap pertama kami garap seluas 170 Ha dulu untuk bangun rumah lebih kurang 3.000 unit. Direncanakan proyek Bekasi ini rampung keseluruhan dalam 10 tahun mendatang. Dananya sudah kami siapkan, antara lain kami peroleh dari hasil right issue pertengahan tahun ini sebanyak Rp500 miliar,” papar Direktur Utama PT Summarecon Agung Tbk., Johannes Mardjuki.Selain Bekasi, PT Summarecon Agung Tbk., juga akan melanjutkan pengembangan Summarecon Serpong. Pusat perbelanjaan Summarecon Mall Serpong akan diperluas menjadi 135 ribu m2, sehingga total luasnya menjadi 200 ribu m2. Nilai investasinya sendiri sekitar Rp800 miliar. Dan selama 10 tahun ke depan, Summarecon Serpong bakal menambah fasilitas dua menara hotel bertaraf internasional, dua menara serviced apartemen, tiga menara strata apartemen, dan satu menara perkantoran.Meski memiliki banyak rencana, bukan berarti pengembang yang dirintis klan Nagaria ini berubah agresif. Mereka tetap setia pada gaya bisnis konservatif namun fokus. Itulah mengapa tahun 2008 nanti target penjualan terkoreksi dibanding 2007. “Sedikit di bawah Rp1 triliun ya. Tepatnya belum pasti. Masih kami konsolidasikan. Kami berharap situasi makro ekonomi tidak terlalu buruk. Sedikit di bawah target tahun lalu, kami rasa cukup realistis,” ungkap Johannes seraya menambahkan tidak akan ada aktifitas fund raising di pasar modal hingga kuartal II 2008.
HARAP HATI2 UNTUK PARA TREADER DAN IVESTOR......JANGAN TERKECOH
TUNGGU SMRA DI BAWAH 400 OK.......
Selasa, 08 April 2008
THE BIG LOSERS IN 2008 ?
Saham2 property dan konstruksi telah terkoreksi cukus drastis, dengan data sbb:
2 JAN 2008 31 MARET 2008
-CTRA 860 550
-CTRS 1000 590
-SMRA 1160 670
-MDLN 475 270
-BKSL 670 570
-ELTY 630 520
-KIJA 182 136
-WIKA 570 400
-TRUB 1420 850
-ADHI 1360 780
-TOTL 580 355
Sebenarnya apa yang terjadi ???BI rates tidak naik , Pemerintah dengan semangat menyatakan sector infrastruktur tetap prioritas.
Mengapa sector property turun terus ? dan konstruksi juga jeblok.
Kita tahu seluruh harga material bangunan ikut naik 5-20 %dan harga besi baja naik diatas 50 % dalam tempo 6 bulan sebelumnya dimulai waktu januari sampe sekarang.
Dengan kenaikan harga2 tsb sector ini mulai terpukul dan masuk Bearish trend.
Bagi yang belum masuk diharapkan bersabar, karena waktu sekarang belum bottom.
Dan untuk trading juga di hindari karena volume yg tipis.
Apalagi inlflasi maret naik tinggi sekali membuat bi rates tertahan.
Dari amerika terdengar kabar 30 april 2008 nanti the fed tidak akan memotong suku bunga nya secara agresif dan ini berita buruk bagi pasar modal.
Saya rasa memang dalam bulan april ini tekanan jual masih tinggi di sector ini sambil kita lihat inflasi april nanti.
Bagi yang udah punya di harga tinggi jika anda tidak mau cut loss apa boleh buat harus invest untuk jangka waktu yg cukup lama (minim 1 tahun ) karena fund managers jelas2 ingin membanting sedalam mungkin sector ini beserta saham2 grup bhakti, suli, dan saham2 dengan PER yang tinggi ( di atas 20 kali ).
To be continued………………………………
Saham2 property dan konstruksi telah terkoreksi cukus drastis, dengan data sbb:
2 JAN 2008 31 MARET 2008
-CTRA 860 550
-CTRS 1000 590
-SMRA 1160 670
-MDLN 475 270
-BKSL 670 570
-ELTY 630 520
-KIJA 182 136
-WIKA 570 400
-TRUB 1420 850
-ADHI 1360 780
-TOTL 580 355
Sebenarnya apa yang terjadi ???BI rates tidak naik , Pemerintah dengan semangat menyatakan sector infrastruktur tetap prioritas.
Mengapa sector property turun terus ? dan konstruksi juga jeblok.
Kita tahu seluruh harga material bangunan ikut naik 5-20 %dan harga besi baja naik diatas 50 % dalam tempo 6 bulan sebelumnya dimulai waktu januari sampe sekarang.
Dengan kenaikan harga2 tsb sector ini mulai terpukul dan masuk Bearish trend.
Bagi yang belum masuk diharapkan bersabar, karena waktu sekarang belum bottom.
Dan untuk trading juga di hindari karena volume yg tipis.
Apalagi inlflasi maret naik tinggi sekali membuat bi rates tertahan.
Dari amerika terdengar kabar 30 april 2008 nanti the fed tidak akan memotong suku bunga nya secara agresif dan ini berita buruk bagi pasar modal.
Saya rasa memang dalam bulan april ini tekanan jual masih tinggi di sector ini sambil kita lihat inflasi april nanti.
Bagi yang udah punya di harga tinggi jika anda tidak mau cut loss apa boleh buat harus invest untuk jangka waktu yg cukup lama (minim 1 tahun ) karena fund managers jelas2 ingin membanting sedalam mungkin sector ini beserta saham2 grup bhakti, suli, dan saham2 dengan PER yang tinggi ( di atas 20 kali ).
To be continued………………………………
Melilea Soya Milk Powder
Produk ini mengandung: kacang kedelai, sukrosa, dan maltosa. Tanpa penambahan bahan pengawet, pengembang, pengental, serta perasa dan pewarna tiruan. Kacang kedelai memiliki kandungan isoflavon, fitoestrogen, saponin, lesitin, kalsium, dst yang berfungsi sebagai antioksidan, antikanker, antiosteoporosis, penghancur lemak, pengendali kolesterol, penghalus dan pengencang kulit, pelangsing tubuh, pembersih pembuluh darah, dan peningkat stamina tubuh, daya ingat serta kecerdasan. Jadi Melilea Soya Milk Powder cocok dikonsumsi oleh siapa saja, mulai dari bayi, anak-anak, remaja, dewasa, sampai lansia. Perbandingan kandungan susu sapi dan Melilea Soya Milk Powder.
Susu Sapi Mengandung kolesterol Kandungan protein lebih kecil daripada telur, daging, ikan, dan keju Kalsium yang ada tidak cukup utk mencegah osteoporosis Hanya cocok utk bayi dan anak normal Tidak mengandung isoflavon Tidak mengandung fitoestrogen Tidak mengandung lesitin Tidak mengandung saponin yang hanya didapati pada diet vegetarian
Melilea Soya Milk Powder Tidak mengandung kolesterol Kandungan protein 11 kali lebih tinggi (drpd susu sapi) dan 3 kali drpd telur dan keju Kalsium 3 kali lebih banyak dan mampu mencegah osteoporosis Cocok untuk bayi dan anak normal, juga utk bayi dan anak yang alergi susu sapi Mengandung isoflavon Mengandung fitoestrogen alami Mengandung lesitin Mengandung saponin
Catatan: Isoflavon berfungsi sebagai antioksidan dan antikanker. Fitoestrogen memiliki antikolesterol dan antiosteoporosis. Lesitin mampu menghancurkan lemak dan menghaluskan serta mengencangkan kulit. Saponin dapat mengendalikan kolesterol, melangsingkan tubuh, dan membersihkan pembuluh darah.
Produk ini mengandung: kacang kedelai, sukrosa, dan maltosa. Tanpa penambahan bahan pengawet, pengembang, pengental, serta perasa dan pewarna tiruan. Kacang kedelai memiliki kandungan isoflavon, fitoestrogen, saponin, lesitin, kalsium, dst yang berfungsi sebagai antioksidan, antikanker, antiosteoporosis, penghancur lemak, pengendali kolesterol, penghalus dan pengencang kulit, pelangsing tubuh, pembersih pembuluh darah, dan peningkat stamina tubuh, daya ingat serta kecerdasan. Jadi Melilea Soya Milk Powder cocok dikonsumsi oleh siapa saja, mulai dari bayi, anak-anak, remaja, dewasa, sampai lansia. Perbandingan kandungan susu sapi dan Melilea Soya Milk Powder.
Susu Sapi Mengandung kolesterol Kandungan protein lebih kecil daripada telur, daging, ikan, dan keju Kalsium yang ada tidak cukup utk mencegah osteoporosis Hanya cocok utk bayi dan anak normal Tidak mengandung isoflavon Tidak mengandung fitoestrogen Tidak mengandung lesitin Tidak mengandung saponin yang hanya didapati pada diet vegetarian
Melilea Soya Milk Powder Tidak mengandung kolesterol Kandungan protein 11 kali lebih tinggi (drpd susu sapi) dan 3 kali drpd telur dan keju Kalsium 3 kali lebih banyak dan mampu mencegah osteoporosis Cocok untuk bayi dan anak normal, juga utk bayi dan anak yang alergi susu sapi Mengandung isoflavon Mengandung fitoestrogen alami Mengandung lesitin Mengandung saponin
Catatan: Isoflavon berfungsi sebagai antioksidan dan antikanker. Fitoestrogen memiliki antikolesterol dan antiosteoporosis. Lesitin mampu menghancurkan lemak dan menghaluskan serta mengencangkan kulit. Saponin dapat mengendalikan kolesterol, melangsingkan tubuh, dan membersihkan pembuluh darah.
Senin, 07 April 2008
TRIPLE TOP DOW
UNTUK PARA TRADER WATCH OUT BRO...
DOW membentuk triple top di sekitar 12600-12650
setelah tadi malam mencoba 12700 tetapi tidak kuat sehingga berpotensi kembali ke bawah
UNTUK PARA TRADER DI JSX jangan pernah pake margin dulu....ok
tREND MINGGU INI utk MATA UANG DUNIA
The Majors and their Trends for this weekJapan, UK and Euro Zone rate decisions are all out this week, and with the impact of the NFP carnage to be absorbed, and the downgrading of MBIA on Friday, this week has set up beautifully.Ahead of the BoJ rate decision on Tuesday we are looking at both sides of the Yen.
The Euro looks to be ready to test 1.6000, the Pound maybe ready to break lower ahead of what many feel is a rate cut coming from the BOE, the Aussie has just completed a picture perfect pull-back to the 4 Hour trend-line.Late breaking news on Friday was that MBIA, the bond insurer, has lost its Triple A credit rating, and as such may impact equity market sentiment. That may give the US$ a bounce day as the move from equities to bonds takes place. If the equity markets ignore the news then the US$ may lose ground as Trade Desks take on RiskAussieA Pennant formation on the Daily chart has been broken to the Long side, and taken out the 20 SMA. The 4 Hour chart has just signaled a Long break of the trend-line, and the 60 minute chart is angling towards 2 o’clock going Long. All of this followed a good pull-back in price that now looks as though Technically could have formed a base. Long looks to be the direction.
CadThe Cad proved once again that there is neither the will nor the way to break the Daily chart channel that has the pair locked in at 1.0350 and 0.9650. We are just bouncing along going nowhere fast. The next leg of this reversal from the recent test of 1.0350 is to break lower through the 50 and 100 day SMA areas at 1.000. If that happens then we may well see a test of support at 0.9650 over the coming week. This has been a frustrating pair to watch, and has become volatile in its daily movement, there is a Battle Royal going on right now to gain control of valuations. There is still no convincing trend either way.
EuroThe Euro has not been able to break and hold the Pivot Point Resistance 1 area for nine sessions now, and for a pair that is in such a strong Long mode that is an unusual situation. It goes to show that for as many Euro buyers out there, there are sellers who are looking to keep the valuations down. Ahead of the ECB Rate decision on Thursday the pair may go through the Buy The Rumor cycle as traders ask; in reality is there any way at all that the ECB can lower interest rates? If not the currency may well move to the 1.6000 area against both the US Dollar and a US economy that looks certain to get another cut in rates this month. The trend is Long and the pair just gave a beautiful ‘pull-back and buy’ signal on the 4 Hour chart. The one real downside is that the pair is sitting at the 70% overbought area on the Daily RSI, and as such will need to quickly move higher to be able to hold these areas.
PoundThe Cable looks to be setting up to break lower in a technical move that would mirror the fundamentals that are calling for the Bank of England to lower interest rates at the MPC meeting on Thursday. We have seen recently that the biggest moves from the Forex News releases have been before the numbers are out, sometimes weeks before, and this looks to be the same on the Pound. The ‘Sell The Rumor’ of a rate cut will likely play out ahead of Thursday, with most traders looking for the UK to follow the US recession a little easier than most other regions.This could be a perfect storm to trade the pair lower.
SwissyThe Swissy is still in Short mode, and after the poor NFP read out of the US on Friday it is likely to stay that way. The pair moves in correlation with the US 10 year Treasury Yield, and as such is recently looking for the the Short moves to draw in more volume than the Long bounces. With the Fed unlikely to be able to stop cutting rates in the near-term the Short Swissy trade is holding favor.The Daily chart RSI indicator is back at the 30% oversold area, all it will need is a session of selling to get it back under and confirm that market sentiment is to hold Short Swissy positions.
YeppyThe Eur/Jpy Pair last week broke a major area of upside Resistance in the 100 day SMA at 159.50, and then ran straight into the 200 day SMA as resistance at 161.20. The Fundamentals need to follow through now for the technical Long trend to hold, and ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Tuesday it is all about where equity markets will trade.The pair is in Long mode, and now looking to consolidate the moves. If global equity markets move higher the break-out through the 200 SMA could hold. If not, the Support area looks to be quite a way off if the 100 SMA breaks as Support; it could be a move to 157.00.Yours sincerely
The Euro looks to be ready to test 1.6000, the Pound maybe ready to break lower ahead of what many feel is a rate cut coming from the BOE, the Aussie has just completed a picture perfect pull-back to the 4 Hour trend-line.Late breaking news on Friday was that MBIA, the bond insurer, has lost its Triple A credit rating, and as such may impact equity market sentiment. That may give the US$ a bounce day as the move from equities to bonds takes place. If the equity markets ignore the news then the US$ may lose ground as Trade Desks take on RiskAussieA Pennant formation on the Daily chart has been broken to the Long side, and taken out the 20 SMA. The 4 Hour chart has just signaled a Long break of the trend-line, and the 60 minute chart is angling towards 2 o’clock going Long. All of this followed a good pull-back in price that now looks as though Technically could have formed a base. Long looks to be the direction.
CadThe Cad proved once again that there is neither the will nor the way to break the Daily chart channel that has the pair locked in at 1.0350 and 0.9650. We are just bouncing along going nowhere fast. The next leg of this reversal from the recent test of 1.0350 is to break lower through the 50 and 100 day SMA areas at 1.000. If that happens then we may well see a test of support at 0.9650 over the coming week. This has been a frustrating pair to watch, and has become volatile in its daily movement, there is a Battle Royal going on right now to gain control of valuations. There is still no convincing trend either way.
EuroThe Euro has not been able to break and hold the Pivot Point Resistance 1 area for nine sessions now, and for a pair that is in such a strong Long mode that is an unusual situation. It goes to show that for as many Euro buyers out there, there are sellers who are looking to keep the valuations down. Ahead of the ECB Rate decision on Thursday the pair may go through the Buy The Rumor cycle as traders ask; in reality is there any way at all that the ECB can lower interest rates? If not the currency may well move to the 1.6000 area against both the US Dollar and a US economy that looks certain to get another cut in rates this month. The trend is Long and the pair just gave a beautiful ‘pull-back and buy’ signal on the 4 Hour chart. The one real downside is that the pair is sitting at the 70% overbought area on the Daily RSI, and as such will need to quickly move higher to be able to hold these areas.
PoundThe Cable looks to be setting up to break lower in a technical move that would mirror the fundamentals that are calling for the Bank of England to lower interest rates at the MPC meeting on Thursday. We have seen recently that the biggest moves from the Forex News releases have been before the numbers are out, sometimes weeks before, and this looks to be the same on the Pound. The ‘Sell The Rumor’ of a rate cut will likely play out ahead of Thursday, with most traders looking for the UK to follow the US recession a little easier than most other regions.This could be a perfect storm to trade the pair lower.
SwissyThe Swissy is still in Short mode, and after the poor NFP read out of the US on Friday it is likely to stay that way. The pair moves in correlation with the US 10 year Treasury Yield, and as such is recently looking for the the Short moves to draw in more volume than the Long bounces. With the Fed unlikely to be able to stop cutting rates in the near-term the Short Swissy trade is holding favor.The Daily chart RSI indicator is back at the 30% oversold area, all it will need is a session of selling to get it back under and confirm that market sentiment is to hold Short Swissy positions.
YeppyThe Eur/Jpy Pair last week broke a major area of upside Resistance in the 100 day SMA at 159.50, and then ran straight into the 200 day SMA as resistance at 161.20. The Fundamentals need to follow through now for the technical Long trend to hold, and ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Tuesday it is all about where equity markets will trade.The pair is in Long mode, and now looking to consolidate the moves. If global equity markets move higher the break-out through the 200 SMA could hold. If not, the Support area looks to be quite a way off if the 100 SMA breaks as Support; it could be a move to 157.00.Yours sincerely
EMITEN PILIHAN 2008
SAHAM YG TUMBUH DI 2008
BUY TARGET FULL YEAR 1800 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Expanding to upstream business
AKRA melalui anak perusahaannya PT Sorini Agro Asia (SOBI) akan melakukan ekspansi ke
sektor hulu untuk produksi sorbitol. SOBI akan ekspansi usaha ke sektor agribisnis yaitu
perkebunan singkong, dan rencananya akan direalisasikan awal tahun depan. Rencananya
aksi tersebut akan dilakukan bertahap dalam jangka waktu 8-10 tahun, dan saat ini
rencana tersebut masih dalam pertimbangan manajemen. SOBI memperkirakan lahan
untuk agribisnis tersebut sekitar 100,000 ha hingga 200,000 ha, dan akan menghabiskan
dana sekitar US$300 – 400 juta. Sekitar 30% dari total dana akan berasal dari internal
perseroan dan sisanya dari hutang jangka panjang. Sementara itu pabrik tepung tapioka
yang berlokasi di Lampung telah mulai berproduksi awal bulan Mei
Plenty of sorbitol manufactures switch to bio ethanol
Sementara itu dengan banyaknya perusahaan manufktur sorbitol yang telah beralih ke
produsen bio ethanol, kami memperkirakan permintaan sorbitol akan semakin meningkat
terutama beberapa tahun mendatang. Kami menilai hal tersebut akan berdampak positif
baik pada SOBI maupun AKRA di masa yang akan datang.
Will build oil terminal with 420,000 KL capacity
Untuk meningkatkan fasilitas logistic di Indonesia, AKRA akan membangun terminal oil
milik swasta terbesar di Tanjung Priok, Jakarta untuk melayani kebutuhan di Jabotabek
dan Jawa Barat. Luas lahan untuk pembangunan terminal tersebut mencapai 15.5 ha, dan
diperlukan waktu sekitar 18 bulan untuk menyelesaikannya. AKRA bekerja sama dengan
perusahaan asal Belanda, Vopak untuk membangun terminal tersebut dan menangani
produk petroleum dan LPG. Capex untuk terminal sekitar US$130 juta, dengan porsi equity
sebesar US$50 juta, dan bukan merupakan cash mengingat AKRA telah memiliki lahan
untuk kepemilikan sebesar 51%.
The expansion also took place in other spots in Indonesia
Sementara itu, AKRA juga telah memulai pembangunan storage tank di beberapa lokasi di
Indonesia seperti Kalimantan, Surabaya, Medan, Lampung, dan Bali sehingga kapasitas
penambahan mencapai 100,000 KL. AKRA juga menambah unit transportasi, tongkang dan
otomatisasi di tiap terminal. Manajemen menjadwalkan seluruh ekspansi akan rampung bulan
Maret 2008. Namun, kami belum memfaktorkan hal tersebut ke dalam model kami, terutama
untuk terminal di Koja.
Potential business addition from aviation fuels
Kami juga melihat potensi yang besar bagi AKRA untuk memasuki penjualan bahan bakar
pesawat terbang mengingat pasar untuk avtur mencapai US$2 miliar per tahunnya. Hal
tersebut didukung dengan telah direvisinya peraturan untuk pengadaan bahan bakar
pesawat oleh pemerintah. Untuk mengambil kesempatan tersebut AKRA telah menjalin
kerjasama dengan Air BP, dan telah mengikuti tender untuk men- supply bahan bakar
pesawat di Surabaya. Namun, hingga kini pengumuman pemenang tender tersebut masih
tertunda. Walaupun begitu kami sangat optimis AKRA mampu menggarap potensi tersebut
mengingat perseroan telah memiliki tank storage untuk aviation fuels di Surabaya.
Good news from BP Migas
Pemerintah akan menyederhanakan aturan distribusi bahan bakar minyak bersubsidi,
sehingga pada tahun 2008 swasta sudah bisa ikut memasarkan BBM subsidi melalui
penunjukkan langsung. Namun, badan usaha yang ingin memasarkan BBM subsidi minimal
harus mempunyai kesiapan infrastruktur. Kami melihat hal tersebut akan berdampak
positif bagi AKRA, mengingat AKRA telah memiliki fasilitas lebih dari cukup untuk
memenuhi persyaratan tersebut. Selain dari itu, AKRA juga dapat terbilang satu-satunya
pemain swasta di industri distribusi petroleum dengan melihat jumlah kapasitas dan
pengalamannya.
…and another good news that came from Shell
Shell juga telah berencana untuk menambah gas station di Indonesia hingga mencapai 10
station. Hal tersebut juga akan berdampak positif mengingat AKRA telah menandatangani
kontrak untuk transportasi dan distribusi dari tanki penyimpanan hingga ke Shell stations.
Untuk itu penambahan station akan secara tidak langsung menambah pendapatan tetap
untuk AKRA.
Now, they are focussing to get more customers in Kalimantan, where total
demand for diesel is reaching 3m KL per year and growing 15-20% per
annum due to the increasing mining exploration activities in the island. Adaro,
a coal mining company just gave them a 6 month trial contract for 10,000 KL
per month or 40% of its usage of 25,000 KL. Other potential customer in the
area includes Bumi Resources, KPC and Thiess. More potential customer
bases are found in Sumatera and Bali where the company is targeting to
serve more plantation companies and fishery fleets.
DEcember 2007, the company is expecting tender result announcement for
Surabay Airport. AKR, teaming up with British Petroleum, is among shortlist
candidates to supply avtur for the airport. At 300,000 KL per year, the
contract contribute significant 12% of our estimated 2008 net profit forecast.
BUY TARGET FULL YEAR 1800 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Expanding to upstream business
AKRA melalui anak perusahaannya PT Sorini Agro Asia (SOBI) akan melakukan ekspansi ke
sektor hulu untuk produksi sorbitol. SOBI akan ekspansi usaha ke sektor agribisnis yaitu
perkebunan singkong, dan rencananya akan direalisasikan awal tahun depan. Rencananya
aksi tersebut akan dilakukan bertahap dalam jangka waktu 8-10 tahun, dan saat ini
rencana tersebut masih dalam pertimbangan manajemen. SOBI memperkirakan lahan
untuk agribisnis tersebut sekitar 100,000 ha hingga 200,000 ha, dan akan menghabiskan
dana sekitar US$300 – 400 juta. Sekitar 30% dari total dana akan berasal dari internal
perseroan dan sisanya dari hutang jangka panjang. Sementara itu pabrik tepung tapioka
yang berlokasi di Lampung telah mulai berproduksi awal bulan Mei
Plenty of sorbitol manufactures switch to bio ethanol
Sementara itu dengan banyaknya perusahaan manufktur sorbitol yang telah beralih ke
produsen bio ethanol, kami memperkirakan permintaan sorbitol akan semakin meningkat
terutama beberapa tahun mendatang. Kami menilai hal tersebut akan berdampak positif
baik pada SOBI maupun AKRA di masa yang akan datang.
Will build oil terminal with 420,000 KL capacity
Untuk meningkatkan fasilitas logistic di Indonesia, AKRA akan membangun terminal oil
milik swasta terbesar di Tanjung Priok, Jakarta untuk melayani kebutuhan di Jabotabek
dan Jawa Barat. Luas lahan untuk pembangunan terminal tersebut mencapai 15.5 ha, dan
diperlukan waktu sekitar 18 bulan untuk menyelesaikannya. AKRA bekerja sama dengan
perusahaan asal Belanda, Vopak untuk membangun terminal tersebut dan menangani
produk petroleum dan LPG. Capex untuk terminal sekitar US$130 juta, dengan porsi equity
sebesar US$50 juta, dan bukan merupakan cash mengingat AKRA telah memiliki lahan
untuk kepemilikan sebesar 51%.
The expansion also took place in other spots in Indonesia
Sementara itu, AKRA juga telah memulai pembangunan storage tank di beberapa lokasi di
Indonesia seperti Kalimantan, Surabaya, Medan, Lampung, dan Bali sehingga kapasitas
penambahan mencapai 100,000 KL. AKRA juga menambah unit transportasi, tongkang dan
otomatisasi di tiap terminal. Manajemen menjadwalkan seluruh ekspansi akan rampung bulan
Maret 2008. Namun, kami belum memfaktorkan hal tersebut ke dalam model kami, terutama
untuk terminal di Koja.
Potential business addition from aviation fuels
Kami juga melihat potensi yang besar bagi AKRA untuk memasuki penjualan bahan bakar
pesawat terbang mengingat pasar untuk avtur mencapai US$2 miliar per tahunnya. Hal
tersebut didukung dengan telah direvisinya peraturan untuk pengadaan bahan bakar
pesawat oleh pemerintah. Untuk mengambil kesempatan tersebut AKRA telah menjalin
kerjasama dengan Air BP, dan telah mengikuti tender untuk men- supply bahan bakar
pesawat di Surabaya. Namun, hingga kini pengumuman pemenang tender tersebut masih
tertunda. Walaupun begitu kami sangat optimis AKRA mampu menggarap potensi tersebut
mengingat perseroan telah memiliki tank storage untuk aviation fuels di Surabaya.
Good news from BP Migas
Pemerintah akan menyederhanakan aturan distribusi bahan bakar minyak bersubsidi,
sehingga pada tahun 2008 swasta sudah bisa ikut memasarkan BBM subsidi melalui
penunjukkan langsung. Namun, badan usaha yang ingin memasarkan BBM subsidi minimal
harus mempunyai kesiapan infrastruktur. Kami melihat hal tersebut akan berdampak
positif bagi AKRA, mengingat AKRA telah memiliki fasilitas lebih dari cukup untuk
memenuhi persyaratan tersebut. Selain dari itu, AKRA juga dapat terbilang satu-satunya
pemain swasta di industri distribusi petroleum dengan melihat jumlah kapasitas dan
pengalamannya.
…and another good news that came from Shell
Shell juga telah berencana untuk menambah gas station di Indonesia hingga mencapai 10
station. Hal tersebut juga akan berdampak positif mengingat AKRA telah menandatangani
kontrak untuk transportasi dan distribusi dari tanki penyimpanan hingga ke Shell stations.
Untuk itu penambahan station akan secara tidak langsung menambah pendapatan tetap
untuk AKRA.
Now, they are focussing to get more customers in Kalimantan, where total
demand for diesel is reaching 3m KL per year and growing 15-20% per
annum due to the increasing mining exploration activities in the island. Adaro,
a coal mining company just gave them a 6 month trial contract for 10,000 KL
per month or 40% of its usage of 25,000 KL. Other potential customer in the
area includes Bumi Resources, KPC and Thiess. More potential customer
bases are found in Sumatera and Bali where the company is targeting to
serve more plantation companies and fishery fleets.
DEcember 2007, the company is expecting tender result announcement for
Surabay Airport. AKR, teaming up with British Petroleum, is among shortlist
candidates to supply avtur for the airport. At 300,000 KL per year, the
contract contribute significant 12% of our estimated 2008 net profit forecast.
SEJARAH KEKACAUAN DI PASAR MODAL DUNIA
20 Years Of Turmoil, Here's How Sub-Prime Compares To Other Chaotic Moments
(20 tahun kekacauan pasar modal)
How bad do we have it now? How do you think it compares?
October 1987 Stock Market Crash; The Dow Jones falls 500+ Points, or 22%, in the steepest decline since 1929. Hedging, Portfolio Insurance, and the newly developed Automated Quantum Trading (Black Boxes) take the blame for allowing things to get quickly out of hand. Regulations are put in place to monitor Exchange Floors. Market participants are unaware of the numbers and the losses taken until after the Runners have collected, and collated the Buy/Sell Tickets. Late into the night the reality sets in of just how big the run on prices really was. Calamity Reading 90%.
1988 US Savings & Loan Crisis;Unregulated Savings and Loans are out of control after legislation controlling their use was scrapped. Over 1000 institutions fail, and a lot of finger pointing lead to the culprit; Greed. Calamity Reading 80%. 1990 Japanese Asset Bubble Bursts;Bank of Japan raises Interest Rates to cool an overheating economy, stagflation takes hold and the reaction is for the Nikkei 225 to drop over 30,000 Points, a move that lasts for over a decade, and drops 80% off the Tokyo Equity Market values. The bottom is eventually found at 7,608, in 2003. Calamity Reading 90%.
September 1992 UK Exits The ERM;The UK is forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism following a spate of speculative attacks on the Pound. The Hedge Fund ran by Mr George Soros pits a trade against the Bank of England to the tune of £10 Billion (20 Billion Dollars). The profit from the trade is £1 Billion. Legislation is passed that will not allow somebody to ride in from nowhere and get on the correct side of a gamble that is allowed to pay out that much. The Bank of England are left to replenish their Reserves. Calamity Reading 70%.
December 1994 Mexico Devalues The Peso;The Peso is devalued by a desperate Government, and the move halves the value of the currency virtually straight away. The US steps in with emergency funding, and grants loan guarantees to the tune of $50 Billion. Calamity Reading 80%.
February 1995 Rouge Trader;Nick Leeson, a 28 year old trader for Baring Brothers in Singapore collects accolades for the amount of business being generated by his Arbitrage Desk. There are more than $1 Billion of Futures Contracts pegged to the Nikkei 225 that are going downhill fast, and this man single-handedly brings down the UK’s oldest investment Bank. Baring Brothers is sold for one British Pound. Calamity Reading 50%.
July 1997 Asian Financial Crisis;Thailand gets things rolling by running out of enough Foreign Exchange Reserves to be able to back its currency, and as such the Baht falls to record lows. The impact in the ‘Emerging Markets’ spreads across Asia and draws in the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia. The International Monetary Fund steps in with emergency loans to the tune of $50 Billion. Calamity Reading 90%.
October 1997 The Anniversary Crash;The Dow Jones falls 550 points, or just over 7%, in response to the Asian crisis, and the NYSE introduces new regulations to limit the damage. Wall Street closes early for the day. Calamity Reading 80%.August 1998 Russian Defaults;Falling Oil prices squeeze the Russian economy, a consequence of the Global recession that followed the Asian Crisis. The Russian Central Bank widens the trading range for the Ruble, and it goes on to drop by 12% in value. The Government imposes a 3 month moratorium on foreign debt payments, in other words it defaults on its loans. Calamity Reading 70%.
August 1998 US Reacts To Russian Crisis;Hedge Funds get into trouble when a flight to cash follows the Russian Debt Crisis, and a re-pricing of Risk takes place. The Bank of New York puts in place a rescue package to limit the fear of Hedge Funds failing. The Dow Jones drops 500+ points on the above news, the Asian crisis, and on the same day a misille strike by North Korea that sends three missiles over Japan. All is not well in the world. Calamity Reading 80%.
April 2000 Internet Bubble Bursts;The Dow Jones tumbles over 600 points, the second largest drop on record, at the same time the Nasdaq drops 355 points, or nearly 10%. The Nasdaq goes on to lose 1000 points in the week’s trade, and ends up off 34% from the all-time high set just one month before. The Internet companies that IPO’d and ran higher give back virtually all of their values, some are reduced to absolutely nothing and are de-listed. Calamity Reading 90%.
September 2001The NYSE opens to a 684 point slide, the largest ever one day move, but a base is quickly found. The Government and the Federal Reserve step in to support the economy. A tragic event that neither loss of money, nor assets, can really compare to. This puts in perspective what loss is really all about.
July 2007 US Sub-Prime Valuations Announced;In the first that many had publicly heard of it, the rating agencies Standard and Poors, and Moody’s, downgrade the LDO and CDO packages that contain the Sup-prime mortgages that were issued in the insatiable appetite that the US had to own a house. Good loans, bad loans, terrible loans, and average loans were bundled together and sold as good debt to Mutal and Hedge Funds. Once the downgrades were issued by the rating agencies the debt could not be held by many Funds, they could not sell them, and as such started to write-off their values in a move that decimated many balance sheets. The Federal Reserve wait until September to cut Rates, after waiting more than a year to cut, and then go on to shave 275 Basis Points from US Rates in quick time. The knock-on effects reduce GDP growth numbers and create a run on the US Dollar. Emergency Stimulus Packages are introduced, and the economy hunkers down for a rough ride. Calamity Reading ?%.
Calamity=bencana
KITA MASIH MENUNGGU SEBERAPA DALAM INDEX TURUN ATAU TINGKAT BENCANA APAKAH SETARA 87 ? 97 ?.2001 ?
(20 tahun kekacauan pasar modal)
How bad do we have it now? How do you think it compares?
October 1987 Stock Market Crash; The Dow Jones falls 500+ Points, or 22%, in the steepest decline since 1929. Hedging, Portfolio Insurance, and the newly developed Automated Quantum Trading (Black Boxes) take the blame for allowing things to get quickly out of hand. Regulations are put in place to monitor Exchange Floors. Market participants are unaware of the numbers and the losses taken until after the Runners have collected, and collated the Buy/Sell Tickets. Late into the night the reality sets in of just how big the run on prices really was. Calamity Reading 90%.
1988 US Savings & Loan Crisis;Unregulated Savings and Loans are out of control after legislation controlling their use was scrapped. Over 1000 institutions fail, and a lot of finger pointing lead to the culprit; Greed. Calamity Reading 80%. 1990 Japanese Asset Bubble Bursts;Bank of Japan raises Interest Rates to cool an overheating economy, stagflation takes hold and the reaction is for the Nikkei 225 to drop over 30,000 Points, a move that lasts for over a decade, and drops 80% off the Tokyo Equity Market values. The bottom is eventually found at 7,608, in 2003. Calamity Reading 90%.
September 1992 UK Exits The ERM;The UK is forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism following a spate of speculative attacks on the Pound. The Hedge Fund ran by Mr George Soros pits a trade against the Bank of England to the tune of £10 Billion (20 Billion Dollars). The profit from the trade is £1 Billion. Legislation is passed that will not allow somebody to ride in from nowhere and get on the correct side of a gamble that is allowed to pay out that much. The Bank of England are left to replenish their Reserves. Calamity Reading 70%.
December 1994 Mexico Devalues The Peso;The Peso is devalued by a desperate Government, and the move halves the value of the currency virtually straight away. The US steps in with emergency funding, and grants loan guarantees to the tune of $50 Billion. Calamity Reading 80%.
February 1995 Rouge Trader;Nick Leeson, a 28 year old trader for Baring Brothers in Singapore collects accolades for the amount of business being generated by his Arbitrage Desk. There are more than $1 Billion of Futures Contracts pegged to the Nikkei 225 that are going downhill fast, and this man single-handedly brings down the UK’s oldest investment Bank. Baring Brothers is sold for one British Pound. Calamity Reading 50%.
July 1997 Asian Financial Crisis;Thailand gets things rolling by running out of enough Foreign Exchange Reserves to be able to back its currency, and as such the Baht falls to record lows. The impact in the ‘Emerging Markets’ spreads across Asia and draws in the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia. The International Monetary Fund steps in with emergency loans to the tune of $50 Billion. Calamity Reading 90%.
October 1997 The Anniversary Crash;The Dow Jones falls 550 points, or just over 7%, in response to the Asian crisis, and the NYSE introduces new regulations to limit the damage. Wall Street closes early for the day. Calamity Reading 80%.August 1998 Russian Defaults;Falling Oil prices squeeze the Russian economy, a consequence of the Global recession that followed the Asian Crisis. The Russian Central Bank widens the trading range for the Ruble, and it goes on to drop by 12% in value. The Government imposes a 3 month moratorium on foreign debt payments, in other words it defaults on its loans. Calamity Reading 70%.
August 1998 US Reacts To Russian Crisis;Hedge Funds get into trouble when a flight to cash follows the Russian Debt Crisis, and a re-pricing of Risk takes place. The Bank of New York puts in place a rescue package to limit the fear of Hedge Funds failing. The Dow Jones drops 500+ points on the above news, the Asian crisis, and on the same day a misille strike by North Korea that sends three missiles over Japan. All is not well in the world. Calamity Reading 80%.
April 2000 Internet Bubble Bursts;The Dow Jones tumbles over 600 points, the second largest drop on record, at the same time the Nasdaq drops 355 points, or nearly 10%. The Nasdaq goes on to lose 1000 points in the week’s trade, and ends up off 34% from the all-time high set just one month before. The Internet companies that IPO’d and ran higher give back virtually all of their values, some are reduced to absolutely nothing and are de-listed. Calamity Reading 90%.
September 2001The NYSE opens to a 684 point slide, the largest ever one day move, but a base is quickly found. The Government and the Federal Reserve step in to support the economy. A tragic event that neither loss of money, nor assets, can really compare to. This puts in perspective what loss is really all about.
July 2007 US Sub-Prime Valuations Announced;In the first that many had publicly heard of it, the rating agencies Standard and Poors, and Moody’s, downgrade the LDO and CDO packages that contain the Sup-prime mortgages that were issued in the insatiable appetite that the US had to own a house. Good loans, bad loans, terrible loans, and average loans were bundled together and sold as good debt to Mutal and Hedge Funds. Once the downgrades were issued by the rating agencies the debt could not be held by many Funds, they could not sell them, and as such started to write-off their values in a move that decimated many balance sheets. The Federal Reserve wait until September to cut Rates, after waiting more than a year to cut, and then go on to shave 275 Basis Points from US Rates in quick time. The knock-on effects reduce GDP growth numbers and create a run on the US Dollar. Emergency Stimulus Packages are introduced, and the economy hunkers down for a rough ride. Calamity Reading ?%.
Calamity=bencana
KITA MASIH MENUNGGU SEBERAPA DALAM INDEX TURUN ATAU TINGKAT BENCANA APAKAH SETARA 87 ? 97 ?.2001 ?
ADA APA DENGAN PASAR MODAL KITA
WHATS GOING ON EQUITY MARKET????
INDEX JSX BELUM BOTTOM WHY?
Saya yakin januari 2008 kemarin belum bottom. Kenapa? Kita bandingkan dengan 2006 dan 2007 dimana saya pilih saham market leader di sektornya KETIKA CRASH!!! KHUSUSNYA TAMBANG!!!!!!!!!!
AALI
EPS 2006 450 TERENDAH MEI 5850 JADI PER= 13 x
EPS 2007 1200 TERENDAH AGUSTUS 1200 jadi PER= 10 x
EPS 2008 1700 (ekspektasi) JADI KIRA2 TERENDAH 17.000- 22.100
INCO
EPS 2006 : 400-500 TERENDAH MEI : 1750 JADI PER = 3,5-4,3 X
EPS 2007: 1100-1200 TERENDAH AGUSTUS : 3920 JADI PER = 3,5 X- 3,2 X
EPS 2008: 665-750 (ekspektasi) jadi KIRA2 TERENDAH 2625-3000
UNTR
EPS 2006 : 326 TERENDAH MEI : 4700 JADI PER = 14 X
EPS 2007 : 524 TERENDAH AGUSTUS : 6550 JADI PER = 12,5 X
EPS 2008 : 700-750 (ekspektasi) jadi KIRA2 TERENDAH= 8750-9800
PTBA
EPS 2006 : 210 TERENDAH MEI 2825 JADI PER = 13 X
EPS 2007 : 325 TERENDAH AGST : 4550 JADI PER = 14 X
EPS 2008 : 450-600 (ekspektasi) jadi KIRA2 TERENDAH = 5850- 7800
PER menjadi patokan karena paling simple dan paling valid dalam menilai suatu emiten.
INI SEMUA FAKTA SEPERTI INDEX KITA SELAMA TAHUN 2006 DAN 2007
SELALU DIBAWA TURUN 20% DARI PUNCAK KEMUDIAN NAIK 50 % DARI BOTTOM TERSEBUT. JANUARI 2008 KEMARIN JUGA (20 %) CUMAN KALI INI TIDAK NAIK 50 % DARI 2240 AN. ( FUND MANAGER BERUBAH STRATEGI??)
.
JADI IDX 2200 AKAN JADI PERTARUHAN APAKAH AKAN BERLANJUT RALLY ATAU KRISIS FINANSIAL BERLANJUT !!!
INDEX JSX BELUM BOTTOM WHY?
Saya yakin januari 2008 kemarin belum bottom. Kenapa? Kita bandingkan dengan 2006 dan 2007 dimana saya pilih saham market leader di sektornya KETIKA CRASH!!! KHUSUSNYA TAMBANG!!!!!!!!!!
AALI
EPS 2006 450 TERENDAH MEI 5850 JADI PER= 13 x
EPS 2007 1200 TERENDAH AGUSTUS 1200 jadi PER= 10 x
EPS 2008 1700 (ekspektasi) JADI KIRA2 TERENDAH 17.000- 22.100
INCO
EPS 2006 : 400-500 TERENDAH MEI : 1750 JADI PER = 3,5-4,3 X
EPS 2007: 1100-1200 TERENDAH AGUSTUS : 3920 JADI PER = 3,5 X- 3,2 X
EPS 2008: 665-750 (ekspektasi) jadi KIRA2 TERENDAH 2625-3000
UNTR
EPS 2006 : 326 TERENDAH MEI : 4700 JADI PER = 14 X
EPS 2007 : 524 TERENDAH AGUSTUS : 6550 JADI PER = 12,5 X
EPS 2008 : 700-750 (ekspektasi) jadi KIRA2 TERENDAH= 8750-9800
PTBA
EPS 2006 : 210 TERENDAH MEI 2825 JADI PER = 13 X
EPS 2007 : 325 TERENDAH AGST : 4550 JADI PER = 14 X
EPS 2008 : 450-600 (ekspektasi) jadi KIRA2 TERENDAH = 5850- 7800
PER menjadi patokan karena paling simple dan paling valid dalam menilai suatu emiten.
INI SEMUA FAKTA SEPERTI INDEX KITA SELAMA TAHUN 2006 DAN 2007
SELALU DIBAWA TURUN 20% DARI PUNCAK KEMUDIAN NAIK 50 % DARI BOTTOM TERSEBUT. JANUARI 2008 KEMARIN JUGA (20 %) CUMAN KALI INI TIDAK NAIK 50 % DARI 2240 AN. ( FUND MANAGER BERUBAH STRATEGI??)
.
JADI IDX 2200 AKAN JADI PERTARUHAN APAKAH AKAN BERLANJUT RALLY ATAU KRISIS FINANSIAL BERLANJUT !!!
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